Independent research portfolio · Sample infrastructure
Independent long/short research focused on differentiated earnings expectations, catalysts, valuation, risk, and an auditable history of how each view evolves.
01 · Investment Philosophy & Process
I focus on listed global lodging businesses, with a core focus on asset-light hotel brands that earn fees through management and franchising rather than hotel ownership. RevPAR is an important near-term operating indicator, but for fee-based hotel businesses I place more emphasis on room growth, pipeline conversion and the resulting fee revenue. I look for situations where market expectations may underestimate or overestimate how much of the pipeline converts into openings, how quickly those openings occur and how they translate into fee revenue. I build my views from operating data, compare my forecasts with available market expectations, and define in advance what evidence would prove me wrong. My coverage is small on purpose, so I can follow each company closely.
Version 1.0 · September 2026
02 · Selected Research
Two flagship fundamental long/short research projects will anchor the portfolio once they have progressed through the full research process.
Research is published progressively, from initial work to fully developed investment cases.
Research Foundation · Initial Research
AC · Euronext Paris
Directional Bias: TBD
Testing whether Accor can still deliver ~3.5% network growth in 2026 after LTM net unit growth slowed from 3.8% in Q1 to 3.2% in H1.
12 Oct 2026 · v1.1
Latest Research Update
13 Oct 2026 · Pre-Results Research Note
Flagship LONG
No flagship long research published yet.
A company will be assigned only after the research process supports a differentiated long thesis and the idea reaches Investment Candidate stage.
Research Pending
Flagship SHORT
No flagship short research published yet.
A company will be assigned only after the research process supports a differentiated short thesis and the idea reaches Investment Candidate stage.
Research Pending
IHG and Accor are currently under initial research as Core Coverage companies. Neither has been assigned a long or short recommendation.
Flagship research will be published only when the underlying evidence, model, valuation and decision record are complete enough to support an auditable investment thesis.
03 · Coverage universe
A deliberately concentrated set of lodging businesses selected by business model and research relevance rather than geography.
2 Core Coverage · 1 Under Review · 3 Industry Read-Throughs · 1 Private Benchmark
IHG · LSE
Active
AC · Euronext Paris
Active
MEL · BME
Under Review
PPH · LSE
Reference
PNDX B · Nasdaq Stockholm
Reference
SHOT · Nasdaq Stockholm
Reference
Private
Benchmark
Coverage is intentionally concentrated. I add a company only when I understand how it makes money, can identify the operating drivers that matter, and can compare it meaningfully with the businesses I already follow.
Reference companies are monitored for industry read-throughs and are not necessarily investment candidates. Coverage classifications may change as the research develops.
04 · Idea Generation Pipeline
From observable signal to investable question.
Ideas enter the pipeline when an observable change can plausibly affect earnings, valuation or a catalyst. Each signal is dated, sourced and either advanced, kept under review or archived.
An observable company, industry or valuation signal is recorded with a date and source.
Primary-source evidence is checked before the signal advances.
I assess whether the signal could materially affect earnings, valuation or the timing of a catalyst.
A measurable investment question exists, but the evidence is not yet strong enough for a thesis.
A potential difference between market expectations and my own developing view becomes identifiable.
I test the hypothesis through fundamental research, operating forecasts and valuation.
A complete thesis, catalyst, risk/reward and kill criteria can now be assessed.
Initiate, continue monitoring or pass.
Archive / Reject can occur at any stage. A signal does not need to become an investment idea.
A dated record of the observable signals and investment questions currently moving through the research process.
No published signals yet.
Initial IHG and Accor research is in progress. Signals will be added only after the underlying evidence and source have been documented.
05 · Long / Short Watchlist
The investment debates under active review.
Only securities that have advanced to Watchlist stage or beyond in the Idea Generation Pipeline appear here. Directional bias remains provisional until the evidence supports a differentiated view.
No companies on the watchlist yet.
IHG and Accor are under initial research (Coverage, not yet Watchlist). A company moves here once a specific, measurable investment question emerges from that research.
An idea leaves the Watchlist when it advances into a portfolio decision, the evidence disproves the developing view, the research question becomes immaterial, or the debate is no longer differentiated.
06 · Research Track Record
An auditable record of timestamped investment decisions and subsequent outcomes.
No research track record yet.
Timestamped recommendations and subsequent outcomes will appear here once an investment idea reaches Portfolio Decision stage. Aggregate performance and hit-rate statistics will be reported only when sufficient completed observations exist.
Historical entries will not be overwritten. Changes to a recommendation, forecast or decision will be recorded as dated updates so the research record remains auditable.
No paper positions yet.
Portfolio-level metrics such as gross exposure, net exposure, drawdown and P&L attribution will populate once completed research reaches Portfolio Decision stage and a paper position is initiated.
Built to evidence the full workflow
Explicit consensus-versus-view framing
Driver-based estimates and error tracking
Dated sources, versions, and decisions
Sizing, exposure, attribution, and risk